After accomplishing everything they set out to do in the regular season and in the AAC by going 29-5 and winning the AAC Regular Season and Tournament Championships, the 5-seed Memphis Tigers will open up NCAA Tournament play against the 12-seed Colorado Rams in Seattle on Friday at 1 p.m.
"Arguably the hottest team on the West coast, over Arizona, over Gonzaga, the entire West coast," Memphis coach Penny Hardaway said about the Rams, who have won 10 games in a row by an average margin of victory of 16.9 points including cruising through the Mountain West Tournament. "They've been playing really good basketball. They kind of hit their stride of where they want to be going into March, and that's where you want to be."
This first round matchup is one of the more peculiar ones of the tournament, as Colorado St. is actually favored over Memphis, making them the worst seed to ever be favored in the Round of 64. In addition to that, it has some of the most star power on the court in the Round of 64, with consensus All-American PJ Haggerty and Mountain West Tournament MVP Nique Clifford lining up against each other.
Clifford, a 6’6 wing who is averaging 19 points, 9.7 rebounds per game and 4.4 assists per game, will be the focus of Memphis’ defensive efforts. Clifford presents issues for any team due to his size, shooting, and intensity, as he is excellent beyond the arc at 39.8% this year and is an incredible rebounder and defender.
Typically, Penny Hardaway coached teams do a great job of limiting clear first options like Clifford to below their averages. However, they struggle with the role players due to this increased focus on clear alphas.
The path for Colorado St. to win this game is to get contributions from those surrounding Clifford, particularly the guards Jaylen Lake and Kyan Evans. Lake and Evans are the only other players averaging double figures for the Rams, and they will need to have good shooting days and aid Clifford in scoring, which they are more than capable of doing. If Memphis can limit the surrounding pieces, Colorado St. will have a really hard time winning this game.
Clifford also spearheads Colorado St.’s best attribute defensively, which is not allowing second chance opportunities, as he has the 17th best defensive rebounding rate of any player in the Division 1. While the Rams are not a great offensive rebounding team since they don’t crash the glass to limit transition opportunities for their opponents, the Rams are 16th in the nation at defensive rebounding rate. Memphis, on the other hand, is 20th in the country since Feb. 1 in offensive rebounding rate.
This rebounding battle, and the battle in the paint in general, is one Memphis needs to win in this game. Colorado St. is small in the interior, with their tallest player being 6’8 Jaylen-Crocker Johnson. The play of Memphis’ three bigs Dain Dainja, Moussa Cisse, and Nicholas Jourdain, who all have more size than anyone Colorado St. employs, will be instrumental in deciding the outcome of this game.
Another place to focus on statistically in this matchup is behind the arc. Colorado St. is a great shooting team, as they shoot 36.6% from deep at a decent rate, ranking 85th in the country in 3-point attempt rate. The Rams generate quality threes through their elite ball movement, as they rank 8th in the nation in assist rate, with 62.8% of their made shots being assisted on. Memphis must find a way to make this offense stagnant and isolation reliant, which will be easier said than done.
As for Memphis offensively, the key, as always, will be to limit their turnovers and find a third scoring option that is not Dain Dainja or PJ Haggerty.
For turnovers, Colorado St. is not a team that forces many turnovers. In fact, they are even worse than Memphis in turnover margin, ranking 232nd in the country while Memphis ranks 202nd in the country. Without Tyrese Hunter, and potentially with no Dante Harris, Baraka Okojie and PJ Haggerty must be steady ball handlers. If Harris can play, which will be a gametime decision, he would be a boon to Memphis’ guard depth and their chances at taking out Colorado St.
As for the third option, Penny Hardaway has an idea of who it should be. "Colby Rogers. We need his scoring. We need him to be a guy. He's a scorer. Need him to be a scorer,” he said. In Memphis’ two conference losses, Rogers scored 6 points in each of those games. In Memphis’ six Quad 1 wins, their six best wins of the season, Rogers is averaging 16.3 points. When he is on, Memphis is capable of beating anyone.
Prediction
"In the NCAA tournament, it's survive and advance,” said Penny Hardaway in his press conference on Tuesday. I expect Memphis to do just that in a close affair with Colorado St. When Memphis is the more physical and athletic team, they have yet to lose this year.
