On Saturday, the Memphis Tigers drubbed the then No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels 87-70 to complete a successful non-conference slate, which was celebrated by Head Coach Penny Hardaway and his players.
Despite the celebration though, they were sure to note over and over again the unique challenges conference play will bring for them.
“It’s going to get even tougher because everybody’s expecting us to win every game so every game now is a big game,” said Hardaway on Saturday afternoon. “We’re gonna be the hunted right, and we’ve shown when we’re the hunted that we’ll not play as hard as we need to because we think we’re just going to win the game.”
“We just gotta make sure we continue to be consistent just with our mindset, our energy, day in and day out,” said Colby Rogers.
It’s a new year for Memphis Tigers basketball in more ways than one as they start conference play as the calendar turns to 2025.
In college basketball, the non-conference portion of the schedule and conference portion of the schedule are truly two different seasons, and no team in the nation exemplifies this more than Memphis. In the 13 game non-conference play, Memphis scheduled incredibly aggressive, getting ten Quad 1 and 2 opportunities. In the 18 game AAC conference play, Memphis will only get three Quad 2 games, and no Quad 1 games.
Memphis has taken advantage of their difficult non-conference schedule like they needed to, by going 10-3 against a slate that ranks 5th in the nation in difficulty this year. They own a NCAA best 8 Quad 1 and 2 victories, and if not for the dark mark that is the Quad 3 Arkansas St. home loss, would have one of the five best resumes in the sport. Even with that loss though, which is a big one, Memphis has the most quality wins in the country, and as a result, are ranked No. 21 in the AP Poll and are projected as a top 5 seed by all major bracketologists. That’s the good news.
The bad news? Their needle-moving, resume building opportunities are done with, and they now enter a stretch of 18 games that are largely can’t lose games. Nothing will be gained from winning them, much will be lost by losing them. And in all 18 of these games, Memphis is the target, the marquee game, and will get the best effort every single night from every team they play in the conference.
After being favored in just six of their thirteen non-conference games, Memphis is the favorite in every game going forward. At kenpom, Memphis is projected to run away with the league and finish 15-3. However, that would mean Memphis would do something which it has never done before: win the AAC.
Despite how weak the conference has been and how much better of a brand Memphis is than any other program in the AAC, Memphis has never won the league, and their struggles have consistently hurt their NCAA tournament chances.
In Penny’s third year, Memphis did not make the tournament because they got swept by a Tulsa team that finished 134 in the NET. In his fourth year, they got an eight seed because they stumbled early in AAC play, as they lost to a Tulane team that finished 97 in the NET, a UCF team that finished 101 in the NET, and an ECU team that finished 185 in the NET. And then last year, the most infamous of all, they started 15-2 on the season and were ranked as high as No. 9 in the nation, before going 11-7 and finishing 6th in a league that rated as ninth in the country.
No matter how good the non-conference schedule goes, Memphis can lose it all in conference play and has shown an ability of being more than able to do so. After Memphis had its best non-conference performance ever under Penny Hardaway, including last season’s, they enter the worst AAC of all time and have the opportunity to lose all the work they have done for their NCAA tournament resume like they did. The apprehension from the Tigers faithful about AAC play stems from this, especially with how the rug got pulled out from under them last season.
Two questions prevail because of this history with Penny Hardaway’s Memphis teams in the AAC and the yearning to return to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2009: What does successful conference play look like to get Memphis a top 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, and will history yet again repeat itself?
For the first answer, Memphis needs to have two goals: take no Quad 3 or 4 losses, and boost your predictive metrics.
First off, Memphis needs to not suffer a resume damaging loss. A Quad 4 loss, which there are five opportunities for, will single handedly knock them down from a top 5 seed to the dreaded 8/9 game they have found themselves in under Penny Hardaway. A Quad 3 loss, which they currently have 10 opportunities to take, are not as damaging, but will knock you down at least a seed line, and will add to the one they already have against Arkansas St. Record wise, Memphis will need to go about 16-2 to maintain their standing as a projected top 5 seed, as well as the losses only coming on the road to the upper tier of the AAC, such as @ Wichita St. or @ Temple.
Additionally, Memphis needs to win the games they play by a lot. The NCAA selection committee uses results based metrics, metrics that do not care about margin of victory or how you win, just simply put who you beat and who you lost to, and predictive metrics, which take into account how efficiently you beat teams.
In the three results based metrics, wins above bubble, strength of record, and KPI, Memphis currently sits at 7th, 11th, and 1st in the nation respectively. Those metrics are excellent right now, and all that needs to happen to maintain those high rankings is winning, no matter how you do it.
However, in the three predictive metrics used by the committee, Kenpom, BPI, and T-rank, Memphis sits at 36th, 38th, and 46th in the nation respectively. Those numbers will have to improve, and the path to doing so is through margin of victory. A good goal for Memphis would be to boost those predictive metrics into the 20s by pouring it on inferior teams in their league. If they can do that and not take any egregious losses, they will get their highest NCAA tournament seed since 2009.
As for the second question of whether or not last year’s problems repeat themselves, it’s impossible to say for certain. However, this team is a totally different team with only one player returning from last season, seems to be much more connected, and their big non-conference wins have not proven to be over paper tigers, like last season’s wins were.
Memphis starts conference play on Jan 2 against FAU on the road, and it will be the perfect test of this question. It will be a “t-shirt game where they’re gonna be in there packed and going crazy” as Hardaway said on Saturday, and will be the first time FAU welcomes in a ranked opponent since 1997. FAU is one of the better teams in the conference, but one Memphis should beat if they play well.
If Memphis loses and it looks a lot like last year or like the no show against Arkansas St., it would be reasonable to be concerned that Penny Hardaway teams cannot take care of the easy wins no matter how many ranked wins or power conference teams they beat. If they win and look like the team they have for most of the non-conference though? Expect them to handle conference play, finally win a regular season AAC title, and set themselves up for a March that Memphis has not had for a long, long time.
