On ESPNU’s telecast of Memphis’ Sunday afternoon tilt against Arkansas State, commentator Mark Adams brought out a groundhog stuffed animal, referencing the 1993 Bill Murray movie “Groundhog Day” where Murray’s character re-lives the same day over and over again.
On cue, Memphis put forth their most discouraging performance on the court this season, falling 85-72 to the Red Wolves, putting an overwhelming sense of Deja Vu in the minds of Tigers fans.
The parallels to last season’s meltdown are aplenty. That team started 15-2, making it to the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship game and getting ranked as high as No. 10 nationally. This year’s squad started 7-1, making it to the Maui final and, at the time of this contest, was ranked No. 16 and poised to jump up higher in the rankings with a win.
Defensive Woes
The “here we go again” feeling is worrisome, especially given the coaching and roster turnover on this team, but perhaps the most alarming issue for this team is its defense.
Penny Hardaway has stated time and time again that he takes pride in his team’s effort on the defensive end, and he has backed it up with top 50 defenses on several occasions in his tenure at Memphis.
However, last season saw a steep drop-off on that end of the floor for the Tigers, and not coincidentally, their results dropped off as well.
This year’s team seemed different. Penny brought back Moussa Cisse, a Big 12 defensive player of the year winner and key cog in Memphis’ 2021 No. 1 defense nationally, and others like Tyrese Hunter who bring toughness and energy on defense.
As we sit on December 8, the Tigers are No. 61 in the country in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and seemingly dropping by the game.
Unlike last season, effort does not seem to be the cause of the struggle, however.
This team is not one of Penny’s deepest at Memphis by any means, and, as evidenced by Maui, in big games, the rotation is only 7 or 8 players deep. The Tigers do not have a traditional small forward on their roster. Memphis has three bigs and a handful of guards.
This alone limits the versatility Memphis can bring on the defensive side of the ball, but it should not prevent them from being a good to great defense.
The issue now, it seems, is that the Tigers are not able to stay in front of the ball. Time and time again Arkansas State was able to penetrate the painted area, forcing Memphis to help which led to open three-pointers.
The Red Wolves shot 12-36 from three-point range. The game prior, Memphis allowed Louisiana Tech to shoot 13-23 from deep.
In years past, Penny has been able to implement his full-court pressure defense to slow down opposing offenses, but the inability to stop the ball makes a press highly ineffective.
Off Nights for Key Players
Outside of allowing 85 points to a Sun-Belt team at home, the other notable dilemma in this game was Tyrese Hunter’s negative impact on the game.
After looking great in three games in Maui and coming up big down the stretch against La. Tech, Hunter finished this game with 4 points, 4 fouls, and 5 turnovers.
When Memphis was impressing against the likes of UConn and Michigan State, Hunter alongside PJ Haggerty looked like one of the best backcourts in the sport. If Memphis’ defense can’t create offensive opportunities, the Tigers will need players outside of Haggerty, namely Hunter, to consistently score the basketball.
Big Picture
It’s just one loss in December, and it's a loss that in all likelihood will be a quadrant 3 loss to a team with a real shot at making the NCAA Tournament, but the vision of missing a second straight tournament just got a whole lot clearer for Memphis.
The Tigers will have an opportunity to redeem themselves to close out non-conference play. They’ll battle the No. 12, 14, and 28 teams in the NCAA’s NET rankings in Clemson, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss, along with a road tilt at Virginia.
A 4-0 stretch there erases the sting of this loss and then some, but the alarm bells are ringing because every single game in the AAC will be against teams of similar quality to Arkansas State.
Memphis can take one of these losses now, but they’ll need to right the ship before conference play begins. That starts on Saturday when the Tigers will take on Clemson on the road at 10 a.m. CT on ESPN2.
