The Memphis Tigers (3-0) will travel to the Chase Center Thursday night, home of the Golden State Warriors, to play the San Francisco Dons (4-0).
While not the brand that a Missouri or a UNLV is, this will be Memphis’ toughest opponent of the season so far.
San Francisco, ranked 53rd at Kenpom, is the highest rated team Memphis has played this season. They boast an undefeated record, highlighted by a 84-73 home win over the preseason favorite in the Mountain West, Boise St., who just beat Clemson by double digits on Sunday.
Boise St. is a very similar level of team to Memphis, ranking 35th at Kenpom while Memphis sits one spot below them, at 36. For that reason, a lot can be drawn from their performance against the Broncos, and it suggests Memphis will have to play very well to win this game.
San Francisco relies most on its guards, much like Memphis. They have a three headed monster of Malik Thomas, Tyrone Riley IV, and Marcus Williams.
Riley IV, a 6’6 freshman, has been the standout for the Dons this season, averaging 19.5 ppg. Returning seniors Thomas and Williams average 15.6 ppg and 13.5 ppg respectively, with Thomas getting over 2 steals a game and Williams gathering almost 5 assists a game on 58.8% shooting from 3.
The Dons have shooting at all 5 positions. Along with their 3 guards, starting forward Ndewedo Newberry is shooting 50% from deep, albeit on low volume this season, and 7’ 0 center Carlton Linguard, who may be a familiar face to Memphis fans, shot 30% from behind the arc at UTSA last season.
This game is going to come down to two things: shooting and the turnover battle.
In this young season, Memphis has the best 3 point shooting in the country at 49.1%, thanks in large part to their blistering 13/18 performance from deep against Ohio on Friday. Meanwhile, Memphis’ 3-point defense is 239th in the country so far this season, allowing teams to shoot 35% from 3.
If Memphis can’t replicate their shooting against Ohio, it was the best 3-point shooting performance in program history. However, if they can replicate their 35% or 40% clip from the UNLV and Missouri games, and limit San Francisco’s damage from 3 better than they have against other teams, they will be in position to win this game.
Additionally, both Memphis and San Francisco are among the worst teams in the country at turning the ball over due to steals, at a rate of 12.7% and 12.5% of possessions, respectively. Memphis is also the 252nd team in the nation in turnover rate, and San Francisco is 33rd in the nation at forcing turnovers. Memphis must limit the turnovers to win this game.
Overall, expect this to be a battle and an incredibly close game. If Memphis can win this game, they would have real momentum going into Maui and their date with two-time defending champion UConn.
