After a thrilling overtime upset over the back to back national champions and No. 2 ranked UConn Huskies yesterday to open up the Maui Invitational, the Memphis Tigers (5-0) must turn around and play one of the greatest coaches of all time at 5 p.m. central today, as they face Tom Izzo and Michigan St. (4-1) in the Maui Invitational Semi-finals.
Michigan St. is coming off a dominant 72-56 win over Colorado in their opening win in Maui, in which freshman Jase Richardson led the way off the bench with 13 points on 6/8 shooting, in an overall balanced effort.
Here is what to look for in Memphis’ second game of the Maui Invitational:
Shooting Difference
The main thing that jumps off the page when you analyze these two teams is how vastly different of a start these teams have gotten off to shooting wise.
Memphis is currently the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the nation at 47.9% from deep. They are coming off of a 12/22 performance from behind the arc yesterday against UConn, which was not even their best shooting performance of the season. Right now, they are lights out from deep.
The same cannot be said for Michigan St. They are the 3rd worst team in the country at 3-point shooting, just making one in every five shots from deep that they take, a clip of 20%. In their two games against high major competition, a loss to Kansas and their win yesterday against Colorado, they have shot 5/45 from deep, which is a putrid 11.1%.
Simply put, if Memphis wants to find a clear advantage today, their best bet is from 3-point shooting.
Rotation Difference
Another place where these two teams are incredibly different is their rotations.
Memphis plays an incredible short rotation, ranking 335th in the country at bench minutes, and only go eight men deep.
To illustrate this, yesterday, Memphis’ starting backcourt of Tyrese Hunter, Colby Rogers, and PJ Haggerty, played 40, 39, and 37 minutes respectively. PJ Haggerty fouled out in regulation, without that, he would have been well past the 40-minute mark. There are only 40 minutes in a typical college basketball game.
Michigan St. on the other hand is 8th in the country in bench minutes, with 42.5% of their total minutes coming from players off the bench. They will go ten men deep, and it is rare that anyone plays over 30 minutes on this team.
Yesterday, no one played over 26 minutes, and 10 players played over 14 minutes.
If there is a clear advantage for Michigan St. today, it is going to be that they are going to be much fresher than Memphis and can really use their depth as a strength in a quick turnaround tournament setting like this.
Speaking of quick turnarounds…
The Tom Izzo factor
Tom Izzo is currently sitting at 712 career wins, best for 8th among active coaches and 24th all time in men’s Division 1 basketball.
Over the years, a clear theme and strength of Izzo has appeared: he is one of, if not the best coaches in the country when there is short prep time.
No better stat illustrates this than his record of 23-8 in the second game of an NCAA tournament weekend. In this setting, there is only a one-day break in between games, and he has made it a theme of Michigan St. to be incredibly well prepared when they have to play a game on short notice, like how they have to in the Maui Invitational.
Keys to the Game
Unlike Memphis, Michigan St. does not have a clear alpha on their team and do much of their scoring by committee. Only two players average double figures for them, experienced guard Jaden Akins, who has been at Michigan St. for four seasons, and wing Frankie Fidler. They average 12.8 and 11.3 points respectively. However, eight players average between 4.5 and 9.2 ppg on Michigan St., and their scoring can really come from anywhere.
Memphis’ alphas, PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter, must assert themselves as the best players on the court today. Memphis is clearly better at the top of the lineup, but Michigan St. has the advantage in its depth and numbers. Memphis’ top end talent must be better than the collection of Michigan St.’s depth.
Additionally, it is paramount that Memphis’ bigs do not get in foul trouble. After Tyreek Smith’s departure, Memphis only has three real bigs that it will play, and Nick Jourdain in particular has struggled with foul trouble all season. In every game except Ohio, he has accrued at least four fouls and has fouled out of three of their contests this year.
Michigan St. has a whole lot of depth at the bigs, with bruising, yet unathletic bigs such as 6’9 Jaxon Kohler, 6’11 Carson Cooper, and 7’0 Szymon Zapala. They also have former 5-star prospect and stretch center Xavier Booker, who takes over half of his shots from deep.
Frankie Fidler on Michigan St. is also the 8th best player in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. The path to victory for Michigan St. is to get Memphis’ bigs and foul trouble and punish Memphis in the paint. Despite their shooting woes, Michigan St. is the 19th best team in the nation in 2-point percentage and 6th in the country at the percentage of points coming from 2 pointers, at 61.2% of all their points coming from inside the arc. It is going to have to be a good defensive game from Memphis’ post players for the Tigers to win.
Finally, Memphis has to take advantage of the shooting disparity. So many extra points can be won for Memphis by exacerbating the 3-point shooting difference between these two teams. If Memphis can shoot respectably from deep and keep Michigan St.’s three-point shooting where it has been this season, they should win this game.
Prediction
This Memphis team is playing too together right now and too well. Their guards will have a clear advantage over Michigan St.’s, and the Tigers will win in a single-digit game, but in a somewhat comfortable fashion.
