It’s no secret that Memphis basketball has been at its lowest point in more than a decade this season. The Tigers have lost to lowly teams such as Tulane, and when they lost to USF a little more than a week ago, the bar quite literally could not be set any lower — the Bulls had won just six games all season prior to that upset.
But amid all of this disaster, coach Josh Pastner’s squad was able to knock off a 21-win Cincinnati team, and most recently, Memphis pulled away in the second half for a 92-82 victory over a Tulsa program that could be headed to the NCAA Tournament.
There’s a remarkable gap between the highs and the lows of the Tigers this season, but after digging into the stats, it’s more than simple random chance that’s separated the impressive victories from the embarrassing losses.
The common thread between those big wins over Cincinnati and Tulsa is that both were played at FedExForum.
It turns out that the Tigers have been a drastically different team on the road than they’ve been at home this season, and it all starts with the defense. Memphis started the season as a good defensive team, but that’s mostly fallen off around the start of conference play.
The truth is Memphis has still been solid defensively, but only at home. In games against AAC opponents at FedExForum the Tigers allow opponents to score 68.1 points per game, which would rank sixth in the conference. Not spectacular, but decent. However, when the Tigers hit the road that number skyrockets to 85.0 points per game, which is easily the worst in the AAC.
For additional context, the worst defensive team in the league, East Carolina, yields only 77.4 points per contest to conference foes. On the road the Tigers are allowing an average 7.6 more points than the worst defensive team in the conference, and a whopping 16.9 points more than at home. It’s normal for teams to have some drop-off on the road compared to home, but a 17-point difference is nearly unheard of.
Surprisingly, on offense the Tigers have actually been better away from home, scoring 71.7 points per game at FedExForum and 80.4 on the road. The U of M is turning the ball over two times less per contest outside of Memphis, and shooting a hot 39 percent from three, compared to 29 percent at home.
The offense has been great, but the defense has been so awful that it just doesn’t matter.
The Tigers have won only one game in eight tries this season on the road, and if they hope to build any momentum before entering the conference tournament next week they are going to have to reverse that trend.
Memphis has only two games left on the schedule, and both are on the road. The first game is against a dangerous 18-win Temple team fighting for its NCAA Tournament life, and the second is against a struggling ECU squad. But that game is far from an assured victory for the Tigers, considering they lost to that same team at home earlier this season.
If history is any indication, Memphis could be in for a rough two games to close the season, and if the Tigers hope to change their fate it all has to start on the defensive end of the floor.
University of Memphis coach Josh Pastner has reason to be cheerful after the Tigers’ win Sunday. However, Memphis has two road games against Temple and East Carolina.
