Finishing the season with an 18-14 record and without an invite to the NCAA or NIT postseason tournaments, it’s safe to say that it was a season to forget for coach Josh Pastner and the University of Memphis men’s basketball team.
Despite the rough season overall and the team dropping four out of the final five games of the season, hopes of making the NIT were still alive on Selection Sunday. Some projections had Memphis in the field of 32 as a seven or eight seed, but instead the Tigers saw three other American Athletic Conference teams invited while Pastner’s squad stays home.
One of the largest factors in the Tigers’ exclusion was the team’s record against quality competition. Memphis still finished the 2014-15 season with a winning record at 18-14 overall and 10-8 in conference play, but the numbers get much worse when examining the record against other tournament teams.
The Tigers were 1-8 against schools in the 68-team NCAA Tournament field, and 3-4 against teams participating in the NIT. It’s a steep drop-off from a season ago, when the Tigers were 4-7 against NCAA competition and 2-1 against NIT invitees. And in addition to racking up the losses this season, the losses themselves are getting worse. On average, Memphis was outscored by 6.8 points against NCAA Tournament teams a season ago. This year that number has jumped to 12.1.
For Memphis, the drop-off against quality teams is partially due to simply having a less talented roster this year. The 2013-14 team that made it to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament was led by the senior guard quartet of Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson, Chris Crawford and Michael Dixon Jr., who carried the bulk of the Tigers’ scoring and each had a wealth of previous tournament experience.
While it’s true that this year’s Tigers are much less experienced, that’s not the only reason for the losses. Memphis was a solid rebounding team this season, finishing the year averaging 37.3 rebounds per game and outrebounding opponents by 12.7 boards per game.
However, the sample size of nine games against NCAA tournament teams tells a much different story. In those games, Memphis was instead beaten on the boards by an average of 3.8 rebounds per game. The Tigers go from crushing opponents on the glass by double digits across their entire schedule to losing the battle on the boards by almost four per game against tournament teams.
With the addition of Dedric Lawson, ranked 26th in ESPN’s recruiting rankings, and big men Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols likely returning, the Tigers should be loaded in the frontcourt next season. Rebounding should be one of Memphis’ strengths yet again, but if the Tigers have aspirations in March they’re going to have to hit the glass against the good teams too.
