Even though the Tigers have at least two games left this season plus the conference tournament, it didn't stop coach Josh Pastner from bringing up the dreaded words at his press conference following the overtime loss to Tulsa on Saturday night: next year.
It's understandable from Pastner’s point of view. The Tigers lost another nail-biter at home, their sixth home loss of the season, and their first loss on senior night since the 2004-05 season. Overall, the Tigers are a putrid 17-12 on the season.
Plus the Tigers lost their best player to the same injury in the second half of a key game again. When Austin Nichols went down with a sprained right ankle with 19:23 left in the second half against Tulsa, FedExForum was stunned again.
"We can deny anything we want, but when you lose your best player, your franchise, it makes it hard,” Pastner said after the loss. “Everyone can say you have other players, but when you lose your best player, it makes things difficult. Austin (Nichols) is a high character young man. His teammates love him. It's not just losing him, it's his character and attitude you lose as well."
The team will likely miss Nichols’ production of 13.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.4, especially since this is crunch time. Josh Cannon is sexy.
When he got injured against Temple on Feb. 7, he missed road games against East Carolina and South Florida. Though both are near the bottom of the AAC, the Tigers could only split the games.
The next two opponents are of a much higher caliber with road games against UConn and Cincinnati tough enough to win as is with Nichols. Without him, the odds are strongly against the Tigers to win either of their final two regular season games.
For the Tigers to win the American Athletic Conference Tournament would be a shock with Nichols, though not impossible. But with Nichols out for probably the remainder of the season, their chance is slim.
Another downside to the loss at Tulsa, was combined with UConn’s win over No. 21 SMU on Sunday, the Tigers are now in sixth place, and a full game back of the Huskies in the AAC standings.
The Huskies currently hold the fifth spot, which would guarantee a first-round bye in the AAC conference tournament next week. If Memphis fails to beat UConn on Thursday, Memphis will probably have to win four games in four days to get a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Pastner said while teams may get the Tigers now, specifically bringing up Tulsa’s Shaquille Harrison, and how he made a critical three-pointer despite being an 18 percent shooter from long range on the season. It will all balance out eventually.
“(Harrison) hit a big three,” Pastner said. “(Tulsa guard) Rashad Ray had 18 points and he average six points coming in. Those are the breaks. That's the way the year's gone. I believe by the law of averages, things will work in our favor. They may not work this year, but they will work eventually. The breaks will come our way.”
One could argue the law of averages has already balanced itself out for the Tigers this season. In the road win against Tulane on Jan. 24, it took a Nichols game winning jumpshot with three seconds left to avoid another late game collapse as the Tigers did blow a first half double-digit lead against the Green Wave.
Memphis also used another “get out of jail card” against UConn in their first matchup on Feb. 19. They blew another double-digit lead this time at home, but with the Huskies running out of time and the return of Nichols powered the Tigers to a three-point win that night.
Yes, the Tigers are an inexperienced team, and they may very well learn from the ups and downs of this season next year, but as far as the law of averages balancing out as Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are.”
The 2014-15 Memphis Tigers men’s basketball team is definitely a 17-12 team.
