With the 2008 presidential election still more than 18 months away, it is already grabbing daily headlines because there is a realistic possibility that the next president will be something that the United States has never seen before. A woman, a black man or a Mormon could occupy the Oval Office beginning in January of 2009.
Only time will tell what ultimately happens, but the issues of race, gender and religion will continue to be prominent throughout the campaign.
For the Democratic nomination, former First Lady and the current senator from New York, Hillary Clinton, and Illinois Sen. Barak Obama are the two front-runners in nationwide polls.
As far as Clinton's chances, Mary Anderson, a political science professor at The University of Memphis, said that women in positions like secretary of state and speaker of the house have helped set the stage for a female president, but she doesn't believe Clinton will be elected.
"I believe as a country we could elect a woman president, but Hillary Clinton carries too much baggage and negative feelings with her to be elected," she said.
John McManus, president of the College Republicans at The U of M, said that a Clinton nomination would guarantee a Republican victory.
"Hillary is the most polarizing figure in all of American politics," he said. "There is no way she will be elected nationwide."
John Marek, president of the College Democrats, said he believes nominating Clinton would be a mistake for his party.
"I think she's a great woman, but I don't think she can win (the general election)," he said. "The Republican attack machine has been working on her for years and has painted her as this divisive figure."
If she is nominated, Clinton would become the first female major party presidential nominee and only the second to be on a major party ticket. Geraldine Ferraro was Walter Mondale's vice presidential candidate in the Democrats' landslide defeat to Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Obama's nomination, like Clinton's, could be seen as a political risk. He seeks to become the first black nominee on a major party ticket. He is also only the fifth black senator in U.S. history.
Heather Larsen-Price, a U of M political science professor, said that race could be a factor.
"(Gender) is not as big an issue as it would have been in the 80s," she said. "I think his race will be more of an issue for Obama. I'm not sure if he is marketable in the South."
McManus also said that race could end up playing a factor.
"Take a look at the senate race with Harold Ford Jr.," he said. "Race had an enormous impact, probably more than people even think. Reluctance to elect minorities still resonates in a lot of places. Outside the ballot box, people are very open-minded. Inside the ballot box can be a different story."
Marek said that Obama's relative inexperience on the national stage could also be a hurdle to clear. He was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 and has served in the U.S. Senate for slightly over two years.
Locally, one candidate in Memphis will have to deal with the issues of both race and gender. Councilwoman Carol Chumney, who is white, is running for mayor of Memphis, a city that is 64 percent black and has never elected a female mayor.
Chumney said the key in overcoming demographics that would seem to work against you is just to be yourself.
"Each candidate has his or her own style and approach," she said. "I respect the people of Memphis to pick the candidate that is best for the job. People here are too savvy to let people manipulate them. Barriers have been broken here in Memphis and around the country, which is really good. I think everybody is ready to pick the best candidate for the job."
In a poll recently conducted by the Memphis Commercial Appeal, Chumney lead with 32 percent of voters saying they would vote for her. Incumbent Mayor Willie Herenton received 20 percent of voter support and former Memphis Light, Gas and Water president Herman Morris had 16 percent.
"I think people will vote for leadership and someone they can trust," Chumney said.
Romelle Craig, a 64-year old retired Memphis City Schools librarian, was not as optimistic and said she thought Chumney would face the same problems in Memphis that Obama would face nationally.
"There is still too much prejudice out there," she said. "When it comes down to it, I just don't think people will vote for someone who's not like them."
Race and gender will obviously play significant roles for Democratic candidates. However, for the Republicans, since all of their candidates are white males, their political risks are different.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney raised $20.6 million in campaign contributions, leading the Republican field. However, he continues to come in a distant third in nationwide polls. Romney, a Mormon, received 15 percent of his contributions from the state of Utah, home of the Mormon Church, more money per capita than any other state.
So the question for Romney becomes whether his faith will be an asset or a hindrance in the primary. It has helped him gather money, but some question whether he has a broader appeal. Some also question whether his faith will hurt him with the party's socially conservative base.
McManus said he believes it is Romney's history on social issues that will hurt him more than his religion.
"I think evangelicals can support him as a Mormon," he said. "But he has switched positions on many of the key issues."
McManus said that while he believes trying to appeal to the religious base is important if a candidate wants to win the Republican nomination, he could easily envision ads that exploit Romney's past positions, such as his support of gay marriage.
Ahead of Romney in the polls are former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain. Like Romney, McCain and Giuliani have inherent risks associated with them as they seek the nomination.
Giuliani's primary problem concerns social issues. He has been married three times, supports gay marriage, is pro-choice on the issue of abortion and is for increased gun control. All these positions are not in step with the core of the Republican Party. His challenge will be to keep his image as the strong mayor on Sept. 11, 2001, ahead of his social positions.
Larsen-Price said that despite the poll numbers at present, she believes the polls could turn around.
"It's basically about name recognition right now," she said. "As more and more people learn about you as time goes by, things will change. I think Rudy's past (on social issues) is more of an issue than Romney being a Mormon."
While Giuliani could have trouble winning the nomination, Democrat Marek said that if he were to win, he could easily win the general election.
"If someone could quell the evangelical base and somehow get him the nomination, there's no one on the Democratic side who could beat him," he said.
Romelle Craig said that she believes both Romney and Giuliani will have trouble in the South.
"I don't think that Giuliani can get by with his positions in the middle part of the country," she said. "Middle-America is just not as progressive as the coasts. Right now people still see him as the mayor on 9-11, but I don't think he can keep it that way. And as far as Romney, I just don't believe a Mormon could convince the Bible Belt that he is the same as they are."
For McCain, his primary risk stems from a position he has taken on what most people believe will be the main issue of the 2008 campaign: the war in Iraq. He has supported the military escalation in Iraq, therefore more closely aligning himself with the Bush administration on an unpopular war.
With Bush's approval rating at 34 percent according to the latest Gallup/USA Today poll, many Republicans are separating themselves from Bush and the war in Iraq. Marek said that McCain's decision not to do so could hurt him down the road.
"It may help him win the nomination, but, if he wins, it will hurt him in the general," he said. "I used to say he was my favorite Republican, but I don't use that line anymore."
Larsen-Price said that events on the ground in Iraq will determine if McCain made the right decision.
"Things can change drastically between now and the election," she said. "Only time will tell. McCain may be making a big mistake by sticking with the President on Iraq, but if the surge were to work, he would end up having made the right decision."
The Iraq War is a perfect example of what may be a political risk for one party may not be a risk for the other. On the Democratic side, it is clearly the popular position to be strongly against President Bush and to criticize the situation in Iraq. If anything, the base of the party would like tougher stances and stronger calls for withdrawal.
On the Republican side, the popular position is not as clear-cut. McManus said the key for Republicans is to support the troops and be patriotic. He said there is no problem for Republicans to come out strongly against Bush.
"Bush has turned his back on social conservatives," he said. "His first term was great and his second term has been a disaster. Distancing yourself from Bush is a good move. Saying the war has been run badly is not bad because obviously it has. Republicans need to change the talk in the country from Iraq back to the War on Terror."
Because the war in Iraq is very unpopular among Democrats, Marek said a balanced position is necessary. He said candidates must be strongly against the war while still supporting the troops.
"Democrats don't want to come out like an anti-war protestor like Cindy Sheehan," Marek said. "But we have to keep putting forth timetables and things like that so that we can eventually bring the troops home."
