Best Picture
The nominees are: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Queen."
What Will Win: Who knows? "The Queen" will receive its due in the Best Actress race, as its nomination here is doomed just as with similar biographical movies like "Ray" and "Capote." "Letters From Iwo Jima"'s inclusion proves that Clint Eastwood has a Midas touch, but it's hard to imagine a foreign language war movie that's grossed less than $10 million winning top honors, particularly when Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby" is such a recent winner in this category. Golden Globe winner Babel has dark horse potential, I suppose, but this film generates almost as much hate as it does love: can a film whose viewers are so divided really triumph? That leaves the two biggest hits: "The Departed" and "Little Miss Sunshine." The former is the conventional frontrunner, although it is extra-violent and, so far, not winning many Best Film awards in the other competitions. "Little Miss Sunshine" seems to be on a roll, though, with SAG and PGA wins. It's also the film most likely to engender the warm-and-fuzzies in the voters, so I'm putting its name in the envelope ... barely.
Best Actor
The nominees are: Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond," Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson," Peter O'Toole in "Venus," Will Smith in "The Pursuit of Happyness" and Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland."
Who Will Win: Whitaker's showy villainous turn in "The Last King of Scotland" may have been little-seen by the public, but it's been seen by everyone in the Academy and is the likely victor here. If the voters are feeling particularly sentimental, then "Venus'" Peter O'Toole might be spared the shame of being Oscar's biggest acting loser ever, at 0-for-8. But I doubt it.
Best Actress
The nominees are: Penelope Cruz in "Volver," Judi Dench in "Notes on a Scandal," Helen Mirren in "The Queen," Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada" and Kate Winslet in "Little Children."
Who Will Win: A win by anyone other than "The Queen"'s Helen Mirren would be jaw-dropping - she's the year's surest bet.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are: "Babel," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Pan's Labyrinth" and "The Queen."
What Will Win: A tight race in which all five nominees have a shot. "Babel" and "Letters From Iwo Jima" are most likely going to be also-rans in the Best Picture race, and often the writing categories are used for consolation. "Pan's Labyrinth" probably has the most buzz of any of these nominees right now. "The Queen" has won the most screenplay prizes of any film this season and is a very strong possibility, but I can't imagine "Little Miss Sunshine" winning Best Picture and nothing else. Since I'm not calling it to win either of its acting nominations, I'd say that positions it for a win here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees are: "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan," "Children of Men," "The Departed," "Little Children" and "Notes on a Scandal."
What Will Win: Unlike Best Original Screenplay, which is tough, the race on the adapted side is pretty easy. This category's only Best Picture nominee, "The Departed," looks way out in front to me. "Borat" would have been in the position to play spoiler, but how much of that script was actually adapted and not ad-libbed?
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are: Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine," Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children," Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond," Eddie Murphy in "Dreamgirls" and Mark Wahlberg in "The Departed."
Who Will Win: "Dreamgirls'" Eddie Murphy is the frontrunner in the acting category most ripe for an upset. Nipping most closely on his heels is probably "Little Miss Sunshine"'s Alan Arkin, who is more than 30 years removed from his last nomination and who could be seen as more owed than Murphy. I'm sticking with Murphy to win, but I bet it won't have been by much. (As the days pass, I am more convinced Murphy is going to lose, yet I'm not changing my pick. If he loses, I will kick myself!)
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are: Adriana Barraza in "Babel," Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal," Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine," Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls" and Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel."
Who Will Win: And I am telling you, she's not losing! The one aspect of "Dreamgirls" almost everyone seems able to agree on was Jennifer Hudson's movie - stealing turn as Effie White. The only thing working against her is that she's been the frontrunner for so long. "Little Miss Sunshine"'s Abigail Breslin would be the most likely spoiler, but that's a very unlikely possibility.
Best Original Song
The nominees are: "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth," "Listen" from "Dreamgirls," "Love You I Do" from "Dreamgirls," "Our Town" from "Cars" and "Patience" from "Dreamgirls."
What Will Win: I suppose a split vote between the "Dreamgirls" triumvirate is possible, but "Listen" has the biggest push and the biggest names attached. It's my pick, but a win for the Jennifer Hudson-performed "Love You I Do" would be the ultimate F-you to Beyonce. Just don't bet on it. Second-most likely is probably "Our Town."
Best Director
The nominees are: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu for "Babel," Martin Scorsese for "The Departed," Clint Eastwood for "Letters From Iwo Jima," Stephen Frears for "The Queen" and Paul Greengrass for "United 93."
Who Will Win: Not giving Martin Scorsese an Oscar for "Taxi Driver" was wrong. Not giving him one for "Raging Bull": even more so. Not giving him one for "Gangs of New York": very surprising. Not giving him one for "The Aviator": stunning. Not giving him one for "The Departed": not gonna happen. None of the other four - not even Eastwood - has the momentum to beat Marty this time.
Other Categories
Best Foreign Language Film: With Pedro Almodovar's "Volver" strangely snubbed in this race, this should be a
cake walk for Mexico's hit fantasy "Pan's Labyrinth."
Best Animated Feature: Pixar will likely cruise to another animation trophy with "Cars," though "Monster House" is the better film.
Best Documentary Feature: Al Gore's polemic, "An Inconvenient Truth," is like a magnet for Oscar's political leanings.
Best Cinematography: With no Best Picture nominees in this category at all, "Children of Men" will likely stay slightly ahead of late surger "Pan's Labyrinth."
Best Original Score: A tight and open race. I'll take "The Queen," but barely.
Best Film Editing: Editing could swing towards Scorsese's longtime cohort Thelma Schoonmaker for "The Departed," but I'm sensing a consolation prize here for the globe-and-storyhopping "Babel."
Best Art Direction: I'm looking for a two-way race here between "Dreamgirls" and "Pan's Labyrinth," with the gals pulling away with the win.
Best Sound Mixing: If the musical "Ray" can win Best Sound, as it did two years ago, I'd say "Dreamgirls" could match that feat.
Best Sound Editing: In this category's first year as a five-horse race, I'll go with the war-torn "Letters From Iwo Jima," as voters may not want it to go unrewarded.
Best Costume Design: Sing another win for "Dreamgirls."
Best Visual Effects: The only major hit of the bunch is "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" and often that equals a win in this category.
Best Makeup: "Pan's Labyrinth" easily clobbers "Apocalypto" and "Click."
Best Documentary Short: "The Blood of Yingzhou District" appears to be drawing the most buzz.
Best Live Action Short: "Eramos Pocos" may have the inside track.
Best Animated Short: Those who care about this category are all raving about the wonderment of "The Little Matchgirl."
