The folks who make the odds have decided the Indianapolis Colts' home turf is worth more than what Tony Dungy calls the "Patriots' mystique."
So that means the Colts are 3-point favorites over New England in Sunday's AFC championship game.
It makes a certain amount of sense. Not so much because of Peyton Manning and his receivers, but because of defense - Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the Colts' defensive ends, are speed rushers who can use the traction of the artificial turf to get to New England quarterback Tom Brady.
A few things to remember:
1. The Patriots' two playoff wins over the Colts were in Foxborough. And those New England teams were better, especially at wide receiver.
2. The Colts have since won two regular-season games in New England.
Yes, Indy was on the road for all four of those games. And physically, they are superior - especially if the defense continues the resurgence that began in the first playoff game against Kansas City and continued in Baltimore.
Yes, the Patriots have won three of the last five Super Bowls. Yes, the Colts are concerned.
"You have to play them and not their mystique and that's hard to do," Dungy says.
Forget mystique.
Manning finally gets to the big one.
COLTS, 24-20
New Orleans (plus 2 1/2) at Chicago
Make it simple.
Drew Brees is consistent.
Rex Grossman is not, although he played quite well last week in the overtime win over Seattle.
But remember the word "overtime." It took that against the stumbling Seahawks, a cursed team all year. And being at home didn't help much.
Getting an indoor team like the Saints outdoors in Chicago won't mean much this week. New Orleans can pound the ball with Deuce McAllister and run outside with Reggie Bush. The Bears have had problems stopping the run since Mike Brown and then Tommie Harris were hurt.
SAINTS, 27-17
