The 78th Annual Academy Awards are March 5, and it's up to me to tell you who's gonna win. I've been on a roll as of late, so I may "Hustle & Flow" through these, or I could "Crash!" Either way, here goes my annual college try:
Best Picture
The nominees are: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night, and Good Luck and Munich.
What Will Win: With wins at the Directors, Writers and Producers Guilds plus four Golden Globes, Brokeback Mountain is just about unstoppable; it's also the biggest hit of this group, so there's that too. A late groundswell of support for Crash will most likely be too little, too late.
What Should Win: Easily the best of the year, Brokeback Mountain broke new ground for a both a specific genre and an overall art form.
Best Director
The nominees are: George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck, Paul Haggis for Crash, Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, Bennett Miller for Capote and Steven Spielberg for Munich.
Who Will Win: It's very rare that a Directors Guild winner loses the directing Oscar, and Ang Lee has that plus an inordinate amount of good will on his side.
Who Should Win: Cruelly denied this award in 2000 for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Ang Lee this time deserves it even more.
Best Actor
The nominees are: Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote, Terrence Howard in Hustle & Flow, Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line and David Straithairn in Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who Will Win: The night's strongest category can't go wrong; these were the five best male performances of the year. But Capote's Phillip Seymour Hoffman, a character actor who has paid his dues, will trump Brokeback's Heath Ledger, who's viewed as too young to win. (Ledger would be by far the youngest Best Actor winner ever.)
Who Should Win: As much as I admire the work of all five nominees this year, I couldn't mark my ballot for anyone other than Ledger, whose where-did-this-come-from work made for the year's most emotionally leveling performance.
Best Actress
The nominees are: Judi Dench in Mrs. Henderson Presents, Felicity Huffman in Transamerica, Keira Knightley in Pride & Prejudice, Charlize Theron in North Country and Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line.
Who Will Win: Even though it's basically supposed to be Johnny Cash's story, it's June Carter and Reese Witherspoon who shall carry home a statuette for Walk the Line. Runner-up Felicity Huffman from Transamerica will suffer for being in a movie that hardly anyone has seen. The other three? No chance at all.
Who Should Win: Joan Allen would have been my personal pick for The Upside of Anger, but of this lot I'd go for Huffman in a squeaker over Knightley and Witherspoon.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are: George Clooney in Syriana, Matt Dillon in Crash, Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man, Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain and William Hurt in A History of Violence.
Who Will Win: Best Actor is the night's strongest category, but it's Best Supporting Actor that's the most competitive, as any one of these actors except William Hurt has a realistic shot at winning. Matt Dillon could carry the torch for the entire Crash ensemble, while Cinderella Man's Paul Giamatti is viewed as owed for his snubs the past two years.
Brokeback Mountain's Jake Gyllenhaal has by far the most screen time and substantial role of these nominees and "lead-ish" performances often win when placed in the supporting categories. But I am predicting a victory for George Clooney, who is most likely going to lose his other two nominations (as Good Night, and Good Luck 's director and co-writer), so his appearance-altering work in Syriana can serve as a consolation prize.
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger gave Brokeback Mountain its soul, but Gyllenhaal, in a difficult role, gave the film its heart. Behind him for me would be Dillon, the best of the Crash ensemble.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are: Amy Adams in Junebug, Catherine Keener in Capote, Frances McDormand in North Country, Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener and Michelle Williams in Brokeback Mountain.
Who Will Win: I wholeheartedly acknowledge that The Constant Gardener 's Rachel Weisz is the frontrunner and likely victor. But something deep down inside me is predicting an upset, and so I'm going with my gut - if voters screen Junebug, they're not going to be able to shun the luminescent Amy Adams. She's my reluctant pick.
Who Should Win: Fingers crossed! Amy Adams, in the year's most indelible female performance, is by far the class act of this field.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are: Crash, Good Night, and Good Luck, Match Point, The Squid and the Whale, and Syriana.
What Will Win: The script gymnastics of Crash will get (unnecessarily) rewarded here.
What Should Win: In a close one between Good Night and Squid, I'd have to go with the hilarious black comedy of The Squid and the Whale.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees are: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence, and Munich.
What Will Win: Larry McMurtry, a nominee 35 years ago for The Last Picture Show, finally will win (along with co-writer Diana Ossana) for Brokeback Mountain.
What Should Win: Brokeback, easily.
Best Original Song
The nominees are: "In the Deep" from Crash, "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow, and "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica.
What Will Win: Hard to call! The mellow "In the Deep" gives the voters an extra chance for Crash consolation. The provocatively titled tune from Hustle & Flow isn't out of it since Eminem proved rap songs can win this category two years back. But I'm saying Transamerica 's "Travelin' Thru" will win out for Dolly Parton, the highest-profile name here.
What Should Win: All are about equally worthy, but my vote would go to the Pimp.
