Stay healthy:
Right now, Memphis is a weary and hurting team. Darius Washington Jr. has severe shin splints. Arthur Barclay has a balky knee and Memphis is thin at most positions anyway. Realistically, Memphis needs to win the conference tournament to make the NCAAs and any injuries will hurt their chances. If Washington leaves the rotation, it's "Hello, NIT." Memphis needs to build a big lead so the walking wounded can take a few minutes off. If not, Washington, Barclay and the rest of the lineup will get big minutes again.
(Re)Pay the Bills early:
It's a sports cliché but it's true: If you let a struggling team stick around, they may just beat you in the end. The Tigers can help themselves by starting quickly. Unlike Louisville and Charlotte, the Billikens are not a good come-from-behind team. A quick 10 to 15 point lead would do wonders for Memphis and could undermine the confidence of St. Louis -- a team that has had little success this season.
Gain confidence:
More than anything, the Tigers need to play well. After losing second half, double-digit leads to Louisville and Charlotte, good offensive execution would help tremendously. This game could be close, so holding a lead down the stretch would be therapeutic. Memphis needs a win, but they need a good effort too. With Cincinnati in the season finale and the C-USA tourney to follow, grabbing some positive momentum becomes crucial.
Just play hard:
Lost in the horrific shooting performance on Saturday was how well Memphis played defense. They held an athletic, good-shooting team to 30.2 percent. Defense is about 80 percent hustle and if Memphis can maintain the defensive intensity against St. Louis, they'll be fine. The Billikens are last in C-USA in scoring at 57.1 and have few consistent scoring threats. St. Louis has no player in the top 25 in C-USA scoring and just one player -- Izak Ohanon -- in the top 15 in shooting percentage. Ohanon leads the team in both categories, posting 11.9 points and a .533 shooting percentage. The Billikens struggle to score from the perimeter, hitting a league-worst 4.0 threes per game. It won't be easy to maintain intensity against a poor offensive team -- St. Louis isn't Louisville -- but Memphis can't afford another loss. That should be enough to keep them interested.
"Wild shot in the dark" prediction:
Many of the Tigers remember the last time they played St. Louis, and it wasn't pretty. The Billikens ousted the Tigers in the C-USA tournament quarterfinals last season with gritty play and timely shooting.Despite their record, St. Louis is a difficult team to beat. Coach Brad Soderberg will have his team ready to scratch, claw and frustrate Memphis at every turn. They slow the tempo dramatically and like the score in the high 50s to low 60s. This game is rarely easy. Since Soderberg took over the team, Memphis is 1-2 against the Billikens. Expect another ugly, hard fought game. Memphis will shoot better than they did against Louisville, but still won't reach their season percentage of .434.They won't need to, but it will be close.Memphis 64, St. Louis 59
