Memphis Tigers (22-15) vs. St. Joseph's Hawks (23-11)
NIT Semifinal at Madison Square Garden
Hot Rod
Rodney Carney is the Tigers' leading scorer of the season at 15.8 points per game, but his production is notoriously erratic.
Carney has scored 20 or more points in 14 games this season, leading the Tigers to a 10-4 record in those games. In the 11 games he scored 10 or fewer points, Memphis compiled a 5-6 mark. His 33-point differential between highest and lowest scoring games this season is by far the highest spread on the team.
With Jeremy Hunt now out with an ACL injury, Carney will have to produce big numbers offensively. Aside from Darius Washington Jr., he's the only player than can consistently penetrate the St. Joseph's exterior defense and create opportunities to score. His height and athleticism can cause the Hawks plenty of problems.
But If Carney struggles offensively, Memphis won't get out of the 50s and St. Joe's will advance.
Role players must roll
Memphis is just 4-7 in games that Hunt has missed this season, but it has been more than two months since he last missed a game. Since that time, the Tigers are playing much better basketball, but lack of depth is now a greater issue.
Since Hunt's last missed game, Memphis has lost Sean Banks and the scoring he could often provide.
So who will pick up the slack?
Waki Williams has scored six points or less in all but two of his 24 appearances. Joey Dorsey and Arthur Barclay rarely provide offensive punch. Almamy Thiero and Simpice Njoya almost never play. Duane Erwin has five straight double-figure games to his credit, so maybe he'll be the answer.
Regardless, at least two of those six players must provide moderate output, or one of them needs to have a career day.
Defend the perimeter
The loss of Jeremy Hunt might hurt most on defense, where Memphis usually excels. Hunt is smart enough and quick enough to take charges and strong enough to guard more physical players. That versatility will be missed and the Tigers may struggle to guard the perimeter, where St.
Joseph's has three good three-point shooters, led by Pat Carroll (44 percent). The Hawks love the three ball, hitting about 37 percent on the season, while making 7.2 per game. Without Hunt in the lineup, the Tigers forwards will have to switch and hedge effectively. If the bigger, slower Tigers have to spend too much time helping on the perimeter, which will open scoring and passing lanes.
"Wild shot in the dark" prediction:
The Hawks have played great defense lately, holding their last four opponents to 51 points per game. Memphis can also force opponents to toss bricks, ranking fifth in field goal percentage defenseThe difference will be which team can get open looks.
I think Rodney Carney shows up big ... he seems to like Madison Square Garden.
The Pick
Memphis 68
St. Joseph's 65.
