When the final buzzer sounded on Wednesday night in Charlotte, the basketball Tigers slipped further inside the NCAA bubble.
Last season, an RPI of 110 with three games to play would have left R.C. Johnson bidding for an NIT home game, save a conference tournament championship.
Since 1999, the team with the highest RPI to receive an at-large bid was Air Force last season. The Falcons RPI of 70, combined with a Mountain West regular season title, earned the Cadets a No. 11 seed.
Since '99, only one other team has grabbed an at large birth with a RPI higher than 60 (Wyoming in 2002, who also won the Mountain West conference).
Except through an act of God, Memphis will not win their conference this season. They may not finish second or third. Charlotte now owns a two game lead over the Tigers. Instead, they sit in a tie for third with DePaul and have the toughest schedule of anyone down the stretch.At any other time, Memphis would have to see the conference tournament as a must-win.
But for many different reasons, it isn't. Not yet.
That is why Memphis has become a curiosity in the national media.
espn.com writer Pat Forde has been in town, ESPN's College GameDay is preparing to broadcast down on Beale and Third. CBSsportsline.com and Sports Illustrated have each mentioned the Tigers interesting case. So has sportsillustrated.cnn.com.
Don't get me wrong, Memphis will need at least three wins the rest of the way (including the conference tournament) to feel better about Selection Sunday. Beating Louisville again on Saturday would be a huge victory, with Cincinnati a week later a close second. But one way or another, 11 conference victories and a top-four finish might just be enough, and here's why.
The New RPI
Ironically, the most decisive number against the Tigers may be their biggest asset down the stretch.
The new index, which punishes home losses with greater abandon than the old system has produced some very interesting results.
Mid-majors like Southern Illinois (12), Vermont (16) and Miami, Ohio (24) have extremely high rankings.
Anyone who has seen these teams play knows that none of them are 80-100 spots better than the Tigers. The numbers don't make sense.
Under the old RPI, none of these teams would have rankings that high and Memphis would have a much more respectable ranking as well.
Because the RPI had been used in some capacity since 1981, it will be difficult to give as much credence to a brand new rating that is producing such different trends as the "tried-and-true" method of the last decade.
Combine that uncertainty with media scrutiny and the remarkable rankings of certain teams, I suspect the RPI will become less important to the selection committee's final decision.
Conference Standings
This one is still a big 'if' because Memphis has to win two of the next three for their conference position to help much.
If the Tigers win out, they'll finish no worse than second place in C-USA. If they win two of three, they could finish anywhere from second to sixth place.
The conference has produced NCAA tourney teams in bunches the last few years. Since 2000, the conference has had four teams make the field three times, including the last two seasons.
In 2004, C-USA entered six teams into the championship and the conference will likely get at least four bids again.
Especially if the Tigers can manage a second or third place finish, it will be difficult to keep them out of the field. Add a C-USA tournament win or two and the likelihood increases.
National exposure
The Tigers are in the midst of an unprecedented run of national interest. Their terrible start, combined with their impressive rebound makes for great news. As long as Memphis can keep winning, they will remain an interesting story. There won't be a bubble team anywhere that has made as big an impression.
No matter what happens down the stretch, The U of M will create plenty of excitement. If they can stay on the bubble, there is no real precedent for the committee to look at when they examine Memphis' season and it could become a case study for the effectiveness of the new RPI.
And uncertainty is always riveting.
