The 77th Annual Academy Awards are Feb. 27, and after going 96 percent last year, I hesitate to even try to predict this year's outcomes. No way am I gonna top myself. But here goes my annual college try:
BEST PICTURE
In the Race:
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Nominee I'd Vote For: Million Dollar Baby
What's Missing:
Before Sunset
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Kinsey
After the Lord of the Rings lock last year, it's nice to have a competitive Best Pic race back in action. Two of these five contenders have a major shot, and we have one conceivable dark horse that could eke out a win. The Aviator is the conventional frontrunner, as it 1) leads in nominations with 11, 2) is from legendary Oscar-owed director Martin Scorsese, 3) is partially from win machine Miramax, and 4) is the only sweeping epic nominated. All of those are good reasons why it will win -- the only thing holding it back is that current buzz seems to indicate that Hollywoodites got more emotionally involved with what some are saying is just a flat-out better movie: Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby. Critical darling Sideways took a surprise Best Ensemble win at the SAGs, and the film does have its admirers.
The Prediction: Million Dollar Baby
BEST DIRECTOR
In the Race:Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Nominee I'd Vote For: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Who's Missing:
Richard Linklater, Before Sunset
Mike Nichols, Closer
Michael Mann, Collateral
Such a clear race between Scorsese and Eastwood that Hackford, Payne, and Leigh might as well go out for a smoke when this category is announced. This is Scorsese's sixth overall nomination without a win, and his only chance to win for The Aviator. And then there's 1992 winner Clint, already a DGA winner for Million Dollar Baby, and already a Golden Globe winner to boot. Eastwood's beloved by Hollywood, whereas Scorsese's beloved by NYC. I'm sayin' indeed that Scorsese loses to an actor-director for the third time, and this time it's to a boxing movie! (Oh, the irony...)
The Prediction: Clint Eastwood
BEST ACTOR
In the Race: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Nominee I'd Vote For: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Who's Missing:Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
I've heard all the theories about how Ray's Jamie Foxx could lose this by splitting votes due to his supporting nod, but IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN! Clint, whose Million Dollar Baby nomination didn't come to me as the surprise it did to some, has better chances in the directing category. Finding Neverland's Depp had a better shot last year, and The Aviator's DiCaprio is noteworthy as being one of the few leads in an epic Best Picture biography that has no chance of winning Best Actor. Hotel Rwanda's Cheadle gets his long-overdue first nod, but it's Foxx who becomes the seventh African-American to win an acting Oscar and-ahem-the first Oscar winner from In Living Color. Sorry, Jim Carrey.
The Prediction: Jamie Foxx
BEST ACTRESS
In the Race:
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Nominee I'd Vote For: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Who's Missing: Julie Delpy, Before Sunset
Yes, it's a rematch of 1999's Annette Bening vs. Hilary Swank contest. And yes, Being Julia's Bening is overdue for a win. And yes, Million Dollar Baby's Swank is probably going to beat her again. I question this, though: if the Academy were truly interested in granting wins solely based on who's owed, they'd have to cough up an Oscar for Winslet (0-4) before Bening (0-3). Only in the twisted logic of the Academy does that make Bening the most slighted one among this quintet. In the great Annette/Hilary battle, only Vera Drake's Imelda Staunton has an outside shot to win if votes split. But don't bet on it.
The Prediction: Hilary Swank
BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION
In the Race:
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Nominee I'd Vote For: Before Sunset
What's Missing: Closer
The one award Sideways probably has locked up. Only Million Dollar Baby could serve as a potential spoiler, and that's only if the movie completely sweeps; otherwise, the writing awards once again serve as consolation prizes.
The Prediction: Sideways
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
In the Race:
The Incredibles
Shrek 2
Nominee I'd Vote For: Shrek 2
What's Missing: The Polar Express
It's Disney vs. DreamWorks again as The Incredibles takes on Shrek 2. The latter had the biggest box office ever for an animated movie, but the former had the better reviews and the more recent release, so I'd give The Incredibles the leg up.
The Prediction: The Incredibles
And here are my predictions inthis year's other categories:
Best Cinematography: The Aviator
Best Original Score: Finding Neverland
Best Original Song: "Learn to Be Lonely," The Phantom of the Opera
Best Film Editing: The Aviator
Best Art Direction: Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Best Sound: Ray
Best Costume Design: The Aviator
Best Visual Effects: Spider-Man 2
Best Makeup: Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Best Sound Effects Editing: Spider-Man 2
Best Foreign Language Film: The Sea Inside
Best Documentary Feature: The Story of the Weeping Camel
Best Documentary Short: Sister Rose's Passion
Best Live Action Short: 7:35 In the Morning
Best Animated Short: Gopher Broke
