Pin the Pirates deep
If ECU has any advantage this weekend, it's in the kick return game. The Tigers rank 105th in the country in punt return coverage and 94th in kick return coverage. On the other side, East Carolina leads the conference in punt return yardage with an average of 19.9 yards per return.
The Tigers will need to move the football and avoid punts from deep in their own end. Last week, Memphis coach Tommy West expressed frustration about the short field that Southern Mississippi had for much of the night. Despite a 527-343 advantage in total yardage, Memphis' inability to punt consistently almost cost them the game.
Upsets can only happen if the underdog stays close. A 40-50 yard field is a good way to help the inferior team.
Pigskin protection
Another way to pull an upset is to produce a string of turnovers. Memphis may get away with one or two, but if the Pirates start picking off passes or scooping up fumbles the extra ECU possessions will eventually cost them points.
So far this season, the Tigers are tied for 83rd in the country with a --3 turnover differential.
Much of that is because Danny Wimprine has thrown more interceptions (12) than any C-USA quarterback.
Without the miscues, Memphis has too many offensive weapons to lose to East Carolina. The Pirates will have to plunder the football to take the wind out of the Tigers' sails.
Mutiny in Greenville?
Earlier this week, ECU coach John Thompson announced his resignation, effective at the end of the 2004 season.
An interesting subplot in Saturday's game will be how East Carolina reacts to the news on the field.
The Pirates could go through the motions this week and play an uninspired game, or they could take a win-one-for-coach approach and play well above their previous level. Either way Memphis should win, but a Pirate with pride is a dangerous foe.
Ben Cowens' "wild shot in the dark" prediction:
As long as the Tigers' bus doesn't break down on the way to the stadium, there is no way Memphis should lose this game.
East Carolina is last in the league in point differential, losing by an average score of 39-20. They've given up 50+ points three times this season, including 51 to the Tigers victim, Southern Mississippi.
If the Tigers don't absolutely self-destruct with turnovers and blown defensive assignments, they will sink the Pirates. Abandon ship!
Tigers 48 East Carolina 25.
