Cincinnati Bearcats (2-4, 1-2) @ Memphis Tigers (5-1, 2-1)
Series Record: Memphis leads 18-11
No free passes
Bearcats' senior quarterback Gino Guidugli is not a household name, but he knows how to put up numbers. Guidugli is second in career passing among active Division I players, behind Timmy Ching of Hawaii. He's also been hot as of late, throwing for 850 yards and nine touchdowns in his last three games. This is bad news for a defense that still struggles against the long ball. The Tigers continue to hold steady at 114th (out of 117 teams) in pass defense. The key will be to get pressure without bringing the whole defense on blitzes. The Tigers' corners will not be successful if they are constantly in one-on-one coverage. If the Tigers can get decent pressure with five or six guys and keep everything in front of them, Guidugli will make mistakes. He's thrown eight interceptions this season. If Memphis lets him get comfortable, he'll add to his 12 touchdowns passes and keep his team in the game.
Run, Run, Run the ball
Head coach Tommy West has always considered his offense as a "pass first" attack, but this season the numbers tell a different story. Memphis runs the ball about 52 percent of the time. In the last two games, both blowout wins, Memphis stuck to the ground for 60 percent of their plays. Overall, in games where the Tigers ran the ball more than they passed, they are 5-0. The U of M's loss to UAB was the only game where they were predominantly a passing team. If Memphis is able to run to set up the pass, quarterback Danny Wimprine will be able to find open receivers and the Tigers productive offense can add to their 39.6 points per game average.
Avoid premature bird watching
There's a flock of Cardinals over the horizon but the Tigers better not start looking for them yet. Every Memphis Tiger knows a nationally televised date with Louisville on Nov. 4 immediately follows Cincinnati on the schedule. They also know that they shouldn't look ahead. Of course, that doesn't mean it can't happen. Memphis was caught looking ahead to UAB earlier this season and it took three late touchdowns to escape Arkansas State. Memphis must not let that happen again. Cincinnati is wounded and should not be taken lightly. Fresh off an embarrassing loss to Army, they have used their bye week to vent frustrations and prepare for Memphis. Chances are, Cincinnati will be fired up. They play well at home, too. In their last home game, UAB survived a 30-27 scare. Throw in that the Tigers are 1-4 in their last five visits to Nippert Stadium and you have yourself one big Tiger trap.
