In 1996, soccer moms wielded the political power. In 2000 dot-com workers were the group parties wooed.
This year, another group has emerged as a key swing vote with the potential to determine the country's direction for the next four years: young voters.
"I'm leaning Democrat, but I'm still undecided," said Nicole Aquino, a 19-year-old Fairleigh Dickinson University student from North Arlington, N.J.
"I like Kerry's interest in education and I'm against the war. But I'm pro-life, so with the abortion issue I'm pro-Bush."
Aquino's beliefs defy the traditional stereotypes of young voters as either naive, bleeding-heart liberals or conservatives who vote their parents' pocketbooks. But statisticians who study voting trends say Aquino is typical of voters ages 18 to 29.
Young voters are more complicated and issue-savvy than previously thought, say political organizers and researchers. Studies show that more than half don't fit traditional conservative or liberal labels and about 40 percent don't identify with a political party.
A poll released this week gave Kerry a 6-percentage-point lead over Bush among voters ages 18 to 29. But that doesn't mean Kerry will win the youth vote in November. Even "decided" young voters change their minds, said David King, a professor of public policy at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
"The youth, of course, can be a swing vote in some key states," said King, adding that young people could be a particular force in Ohio, Michigan and Washington, where there are several large universities. "But within the swing vote, young people are swinging between the candidates."
In other words, the youth vote is still up for grabs.
With nearly 27 million Americans ages 18 to 24, it would stand to reason that political hopefuls would be on nationwide college campus tours to win support. But, while 20-somethings are getting more attention now than in previous presidential races, the youth vote is still often dismissed as a nonfactor.
"Politicians do not pay a lot of attention to students because they don't vote, and students don't vote because politicians don't pay a lot of attention to them," said Alison Aikele, the 20-year-old communications director at the College Republican National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C.
The last presidential election did nothing to counter the image of young people as apathetic. In 2000, only 18 million Americans between the ages of 18 and 30 voted ó the lowest number of voters to turn out for that age group since 1972. Less than 42 percent of Americans ages 18 to 24 voted.
But researchers and college activists say the number of young voters will be much higher this November.
They say the close 2000 election changed many young people's opinions that individual votes don't matter.
They also maintain that the Iraq war and the economy two of the most polarizing and important issues among both young people and the general voting population ó will drive young people into the voting booths on Nov. 2.
About 75 percent of Americans ages 18 to 24 plan to vote in the upcoming election, according to the poll released this week by CBS, MTV and The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement.
Nearly half of that group will be voting for the first time. Rock the Vote and its partner nonpartisan voting organizations - MTV Choose or Lose, Declare Yourself, Hip-Hop Summit Action Network, Smack Down Your Vote and the New Voters Project ó are spending $40 million to get out the youth vote. During the past several months, 500,000 people have registered to vote online at Rock the Vote.
