Although the impact of the war may not be negative, it will be felt throughout the United States economy — including in the job market many students will be entering this summer.
While the job outlook for graduating seniors is not likely to improve because of the war, the effects on the economy may not be large enough to make a difference, experts said.
“The biggest problem (with the economy) is not necessarily the war, but the war complicates it,” said David Kemme, a professor at The University of Memphis. Kemme holds a Ph.D. in economics and the Chair of Excellence in International Economics.
“The economy is slowing down, and the job outlook is not very good to begin with, and then the uncertainty of the war could bring the economy down even more because of the inability of firms to predict the demand for their products,” Kemme said.
Jack Quinlan, area manager of Manpower, an employment service, agreed with Kemme about uncertainty being a key factor in the impact of the war on our economy.
“Employment is the function of the economy, not of war, but the war will definitely be a factor in the economy,” Quinlan said.
Kemme and Quinlan both said the length of the war would be the determining factor in how it will affect our economy.
“The duration of the war has an impact as well as the uncertainty that this war holds,” Quinlan said.
The war could change the economy and employment, but we won’t know for sure what the impact is until the end of the war, he added.
“I don’t think that anyone thought that after World War II we would be the world power we were,” Quinlan said. “I don’t think anyone can tell whether the impact will be positive or negative yet.”
One aspect of the problem is the lack of available jobs at a time when some companies may need more help because of military reserve call-ups.
“When reserve personnel in the armed services go to active duty, most firms either voluntarily or have to keep that position available,” Kemme said.
However, some industries will see a greater impact than others, like the travel and tourism industries, Kemme added.
“Probably all of tourism, resort management, holiday services and so on, that’s going to be negatively affected in a big way,” Kemme said. “The airline industries are an example of that impact in which we have five major airlines that are suffering tremendously, are either in bankruptcy or are going bankrupt, laying off workers.”
The most evident effect of these layoffs is the lack of those people spending, which can have an effect on the economy immediately, according to Kemme.
“That is the biggest and clearest causality of the war,” he said.
Kemme said there is really no way of telling just how the Unites States deals with and eventually recovers from the war.
“You have this uncertain domestic economy already that is performing not very well and then you add the war and the uncertainty that (the war) adds to it, so it’s very difficult to say what the effect will be on the economy,” he said.
The best advice to graduating seniors is to try and try hard when looking for jobs, according to Kemme.
“Certainly if you want a job you have to go look,” he said. “If you can’t find a job, what do you do? You either enter a job that you don’t prefer, or if you can afford to, you increase your skills and credentials by going back to school.”
Kemme also said during times of recession, enrollment in higher education increases for exactly that reason.
“You should be even more prepared and more diligent in preparing for job interviews and selling yourself because you’ll have more competition for that position than ever before,” Kemme said. “And if you fail, don’t be discouraged. Keep applying, expand your geographic search and be flexible.”
