Along with voting a new governor into office, Tennessee voters will be faced with deciding the fate of the widely debated implementation of a state lottery when polls open on Nov. 5.
Lawmakers laid the foundation to lift the prohibition on lotteries last month by approving a bill that will place a constitutional amendment referendum on the ballot in the November general elections.
But with seven months remaining until the election and a statewide majority vote needed to repeal the ban, coalitions for and against the lottery have already hit the campaign trail in what is expected to be a hotly contested multi-million dollar effort to sway voters.
The lottery is being presented by lawmakers as a “revenue booster” that will be used to fund the state’s financially ailing K-12 and higher education systems.
The potential fiscal impact of a state lottery is estimated to range from $180 to $302 million, with 45 percent of the proceeds earmarked for prizes and the remaining proceeds going to education.
The rough estimate was made by calculating the gross proceeds of the four bordering states that currently have lotteries.
If passed, Tennessee’s lottery will be structured to mirror the Georgia lottery that provides hundreds of incoming college students with scholarships based on grade point percentages, along with subsidizing funding for much needed capital outlay projects, such as the construction and enhancement of higher education institutions.
Senator Steve Cohen, (D-Memphis) has been the key lottery supporter and bill sponsor since 1984. However, the push to remove the ban on lotteries has repeatedly been struck down in the general assembly, as well as being subject to major opposition from the religious community and out-of-state gambling interest, according to Cohen.
“It's unfortunate (the lottery) has been labeled as this major moral issue,” said Cohen. “I see it as a freedom to choose and an opportunity to help education. The only places in the world that don’t have some form of gambling are found where oppressive regimes exist, such as Afghanistan.”
Cohen added that the future of a lottery in this state will definitively be answered in November.
“It’s now or never,” said Cohen. “If it doesn’t get passed now, then there will never be a lottery in the state.”
Last month, Cohen announced the creation of the Tennessee Student Lottery Coalition, which is riding under the banner of a new slogan — “Tuition Free In Tennessee.”
However, opposition leaders with the Gambling Free Tennessee Alliance, who will kick off a statewide anti-lottery media campaign today at 3:30 p.m. in the Memphis International Airport, said the proposed lottery is a “wolf in sheep’s clothing.”
“People are under a false impression that a lottery will somehow fix our budget crisis and will help fund our children’s education,” said Michael Gilstrap, director of the anti-lottery alliance. “A lottery is an unstable source of income, and it will end up costing this state money and inflicting more damage to our citizens...It simply is not the answer to our problems.”
Gilstrap cited comparative data from other states with lotteries where projected revenues have fallen short, leaving many states struggling to cover a structural deficit left by poor lottery ticket sales.
While state legislators are prohibited by law to engage in “any activity of influence” relevant to a lottery or other gaming venues, Gilstrap warned that the introduction of a lottery may compromise the integrity of state lawmakers.
“With gambling money coming through Tennessee to the tune of $600 million, we have to suspect that political corruption is not only possible, but it is inevitable,” Gilstrap said.
Among those currently campaigning against a lottery is former state representative Tommy Burnett of Jamestown, who was indicted for conspiracy, illegal gambling, mail fraud and perjury following the 12-year-old Rocky Top scandal.
Burnett could not be reached for comment.
“You have to ask yourself the question of whether we want to bring all of this back to Tennessee,” Gilstrap said.
While detractors initially feared the implementation of a lottery would be used as the gateway to other gaming venues, legislation introduced last month by Sen. Randy McNally, (R-Oakland) will place statutory barriers designed to close legal loopholes that could open the door to “casino-like” games if the lottery referendum passes.
While opponents say they plan to fight to prevent a lottery “on all fronts,” supporters simply point to the vast number of Tennesseans who cross state boundaries to play in the states that have lotteries.
While not supportive of the lottery, Roger Abramson, senior analyst and researcher at the Tennessee Institute for Public Policy, a non-profit, free market think tank in Tennessee, said Tennesseans spend an estimated $200 million playing the lottery in other states.
While the primary message of pro-lottery groups is to provide funding assistance for the state’s students, Abramson pointed to several “structural flaws” that may downscale the potential educational benefit.
Abramson said there are inherent problems in the Georgia “lottery for education” program, such as students taking scaled down curriculums to inflate G.P.A’s and the apparent existence of grade inflation by teachers.
“The kids who are taking the easier classes are being rewarded with scholarships while the students who take the more academic classes are being left out,” Abramson said.
The result is a growing “wash out” rate for students who were awarded scholarships, but fail to graduate from a Georgia higher education institution.
“It is flawed... If we do it in Tennessee, we need a more objective measure to determine who gets the scholarships, like ACT scores,” Abramson said.
Abramson also said the scholarships awarded under the lottery program will place additional strain on the state’s academic institutions’ ability to “adequately educate” the students in Tennessee.
“The resources for higher education are already stretched pretty thin,” Abramson said. “With all those additional scholarships, it is going to be difficult for public colleges to keep pace with growing enrollment numbers while sustaining a quality education.”
Abramson said while the scholarship program will attract the much desired “better student” to stay in the state, the implementation of the program may be premature.
“Our colleges need new buildings, better research facilities and better and well paid teachers first,” Abramson said. “After we secure those things, then we should start talking about bringing a larger student body into the state.”
Preliminary surveys conducted by the TIPP suggest that nearly 62 percent of Tennesseans are in favor of a lottery, the most favorable public statistic since 1984.
If passed, the bill also calls for the creation of a Tennessee Lottery Corporation, which will be composed of business and educational leaders throughout the state to oversee daily operations.
