Should the United States shift its military focus toward Iraq once the “first phase,” as President Bush has described it, of the war on terror is completed in Afghanistan?
“If they develop weapons of mass destruction that will be used to terrorize nations, they will be held accountable,” Bush said this week. “And, as for Mr. Saddam Hussein, he needs to let inspectors back in his country to show us that he is not developing weapons of mass destruction.”
When asked what would happen if Hussein refused to allow inspectors to monitor his weapons programs, Bush said, “He’ll find out.”
Secretary of State Colin Powell warned this month that Hussein should comply with United Nations regulations, allow inspectors back in and cease its sponsorship of terrorism.
“We will turn our attention to terrorism throughout the world, and nations such as Iraq should not think we will not turn our attention to them,” he said.
Hussein expelled UN weapons inspectors from Iraq in 1998, violating a UN order that he allow inspectors to monitor the dismantling of his weapons of mass destruction program following the Gulf War in 1991. Weapons of mass destruction include nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Since the inspectors left, no one has been able to get inside Iraq to monitor the weapons programs there. Iraq remains on the State Department list of countries who sponsor terrorism.
There appears to be a division in the Bush administration between those who want to go to Iraq and those who do not.
“It has been that way since 1991. In 1991, there was a division within the first Bush administration over whether they should march on to Baghdad and depose Saddam Hussein or whether they should stop short of that,” said University of Memphis political science professor David Mason. “That has been an issue throughout the first Bush administration, the Clinton administration and the current Bush administration.”
There are also concerns that a move against Iraq could unravel the international coalition stitched together by the administration.
“We might find support for taking out facilities that produce chemical, biological or nuclear weapons,” Mason said. “I think we could do that militarily, that is not the problem. The question is whether we would suffer for it politically.
“For that reason I do not think they would go that far unless there was some clear provocation of attack by Sadam Hussein or evidence that closely ties him to the attacks of Sept. 11.”
“The more hard-line elements in this administration would like to go ahead and take this war on to Iraq and, as some people would say, take care of unfinished business,” said assistant professor of political science Shannon Blanton. “There are more cautious elements within his administration, such as Colin Powell, who do not think that would be a good idea.”
The Bush administration has proved, with its push for a missile defense shield, that it is willing to act unilaterally against the wishes of the international community and allies. It could move against Iraq against the urgings of allies to not do so.
“This administration is more inclined to move that way than others,” Blanton said. “I would not be totally shocked, if they could find a smoking gun, if the Bush administration pushed on to Iraq.”
The Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, Milos Zeman, said last month that suspected terrorist mastermind Mohammed Atta met with an Iraqi diplomat in Prague to discuss a terror attack on the Radio Free Europe building in that city. Atta is believed to be one of the pilots that crashed planes into the twin towers in New York.
According to Iraq Watch, a division of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, Iraq continues to pursue components for nuclear weapons. In 1998, Iraq purchased six lithotripter machines, which are used in medicine to destroy kidney stones.
Each machine contains a precision electronic switch that can also be used to trigger atomic bombs. Under the UN-imposed oil for food program, Iraq can sell oil for food and medicinal purposes only.
According to UN reports, Iraq cannot account for 3.9 tons of the deadly VX nerve gas, nor for 600 tons of materials used in the manufacture of the gas. The records also show that Iraq kept 157 aerial bombs and 25 missile warheads filled with germ agents and spraying equipment to deliver the germs by helicopter.
