With the 2001 Oscar race heading into the final stretches, it's time for some final picks and predictions for which films and stars will be taking home Hollywood's most coveted Golden Guys on Sunday, March 25. Competitors in office Oscar pools beware: there are almost always some surprises.
Best Picture
The nominees are: Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Gladiator and Traffic.
What will win: It's not so much that Gladiator will win; it's just that the other four won't. Chocolat is deemed too lightweight. Crouching Tiger, while a possibility, will suffer for being in a foreign language. Erin's too old, and Traffic's too seedy. That leaves Gladiator, the kind of epic Oscar traditionally lauds, to carry the day.
What should win: Traffic's exploration of the multi-sided black holes of the drug war made for the year's most fluid movie experience.
Best Director
The nominees are: Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot, Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Steven Soderbergh for Erin Brockovich, Ridley Scott for Gladiator and Steven Soderbergh (again) for Traffic.
Who will win: Gladiator may win Best Picture, but somewhat surprisingly, few Oscar watchers are expecting its director, Ridley Scott, to follow suit. And with the double-nominated Steven Soderbergh likely to split his vote, that leaves the door open for Crouching Tiger's Ang Lee, already a Golden Globe and Directors Guild winner.
Who should win: He may be nominated twice, but there's no question that Steven Soderbergh's work on Traffic was not only his best, but also the best directing job of 2000.
Best Actor
The nominees are: Javier Bardem in Before Night Falls, Russell Crowe in Gladiator, Tom Hanks in Cast Away, Ed Harris in Pollock and Geoffrey Rush in Quills.
Who will win: Russell Crowe lost last year for The Insider, so some feel he's owed. Others feel his highly-publicized romp with Meg Ryan and bad boy behavior might hurt his chances, especially combined with the fact that generally movies like Gladiator aren't where one looks for Oscar-calibre acting. So I'm going with Cast Away's Tom Hanks, who would win his third Best Actor Oscar. That's never happened before, and certainly not in Hanks' 8-year time span.
Who should win: Bardem and Harris both won over critics, and deservedly so, but few actors could pull off the demands that Cast Away placed on Tom Hanks. (Having said that, I still would have voted for the un-nominated Jamie Bell of Billy Elliot or Michael Douglas of Wonder Boys.)
Best Actress
The nominees are: Joan Allen in The Contender, Juliette Binoche in Chocolat, Ellen Burstyn in Requiem for a Dream, Laura Linney in You Can Count on Me and Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich.
Who will win: On her third career nomination, Erin Brockovich's Julia Roberts is a shoo-in and then some.
Who should win: In the most talent-packed of this year's acting races, You Can Count on Me's Laura Linney mastered the toughest challenge: playing an ordinary woman.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are: Jeff Bridges in The Contender, Willem Dafoe in Shadow of the Vampire, Benicio Del Toro in Traffic, Albert Finney in Erin Brockovich and Joaquin Phoenix in Gladiator.
Who will win: The year's toughest call. Will it be critics' favorite Benicio Del Toro for Traffic, or five-time nominee Albert Finney for Erin Brockovich? I bet even Steven Soderbergh, who directed both films, would have a hard time choosing. Just based on his winless record, I'm picking Finney in a sentimental win.
Who should win: It's hard to hold your own against a spitfire character like Erin Brockovich, and Finney almost steals the movie out from under the main character.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are: Judi Dench in Chocolat, Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock, Kate Hudson in Almost Famous, Frances McDormand in Almost Famous and Julie Walters in Billy Elliot.
Who will win: Add Almost Famous' Kate Hudson to the ever-growing list of children of famous parents to land an Oscar win. Her mom, Goldie Hawn, won in this category (at about the same age), in 1969.
Who should win: In Billy Elliot, Julie Walters balleted and chain-smoked her way into creating one of the year's most indelible supporting characters.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot, Erin Brockovich, Gladiator and You Can Count on Me.
What will win: Certainly a two-horse race between Almost Famous and You Can Count on Me. You Can Count on Me's won the most pre-Oscar awards, though Cameron Crowe may win here after being snubbed for a directing nod. I say You Can Count on Me by a nose.
What should win: Kenneth Lonergan's script for You Can Count on Me is a small masterpiece of understatement and lived-in believability.
Best Screenplay Adaptation
The nominees are: Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, Traffic and Wonder Boys.
What will win: Writers Guild winner Traffic seems to have the inside track.
What should win: Stephen Gaghan's opus to the drug war, Traffic, told three different stories compellingly when just one would have been enough.
And here are my predictions in those sometimes-tricky technical categories:
Best Cinematography: In one of many Crouching Tiger/Gladiator showdowns of the night, I'm going with the majestic look of Peter Pau's work on Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Best Original Score: After a huge upset by The Red Violin in this category last year, am I crazy for calling another one with Italian import Malena?
Best Original Song: Things haven't changed when it comes to honoring legends in this category. Bob Dylan's got this one in the bag for "Things Have Changed" from Wonder Boys.
Best Film Editing: The Best Picture winner usually takes Best Editing, so Gladiator's in the running. But I'm predicting the action-packed theatrics of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Best Art Direction: Gladiator astutely recreated ancient Rome and will likely seize the statue.
Best Sound: Slay another win for Gladiator.
Best Costume Design: The medeival designs of Gladiator should trump the threads of Crouching Tiger.
Best Visual Effects:The Perfect Storm, shakily.
Best Makeup: The in-your-face makeup design of The Grinch is a shoo-in.
Best Sound Effects Editing: U-571 will likely send Space Cowboys into orbit.
Best Foreign Language Film: Uh, Crouching Tiger, obviously.
Best Documentary Feature: Holocaust documentaries always win, so chalk up a trophy for Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindertransport.
--Danny Linton reviewed movies for The Daily Helmsman from 1993-1998. He now teaches film at The U of M.
