In the winter of 1811, the regions lying within the New Madrid fault zone were struck by three of the most powerful earthquakes in the history of the United States.
Although the region was sparsely populated at the time, survivors reported the ground swelled in visible waves and shook with a tremendous roar.
In the years since, the New Madrid fault region, which includes Memphis, has seen a virtual boom in population while the fault has remained relatively dormant.
However, officials from the Earthquake Research Center at The University of Memphis said the probability of a 6 to 7 magnitude earthquake striking in the near future is higher than 90 percent.
Clouding the picture, professor at the center Gary Patterson and the city of Memphis said the metropolitan area, as a whole, is not prepared to withstand the immense power of a strong quake.
"Damage assessment would be impossible to calculate at this point, but the older buildings in the midtown and downtown areas would be very vulnerable in the occurrence of a large quake," Patterson said.
Amid the recent earthquakes that ravaged the western state of Gujarat in India, local officials such as Clint Buchanan, director of the Emergency Management Agency for Memphis and Shelby County, are beginning to take notice of the possible ramifications of an earthquake striking the Mid-South.
"We are taking a close look at what happened in India and are preparing for a similar situation," Buchanan said. "When it does hit, it will be a matter of organizing the chaos that follows."
While the property damage a large quake will inflict upon a city saturated with old buildings is expected to be great, the loss of life depends upon the time of day the quake strikes, according to Buchanan.
For instance, if a large magnitude quake occurs at 2:30 p.m., the loss of life could be staggering, Buchanan said.
"We have a large number of our rescue personnel stationed in the older buildings of the city," Buchanan said.
He added rescue capabilities will depend upon outlying areas in the county. "The rescuers may have to rescue the rescuers."
In lieu of the possible seismic vulnerability of older buildings during a large scale quake, Howard Hwang, a professor at The U of M's Earthquake Center, has evaluated and assessed the capabilities of The U of M's ability to withstand the violent effects of an earthquake.
In the study, Hwang found that 15 buildings on campus are classified as high risk structures, including the Administration Building, Richardson Towers, West and Mynders halls. The remaining structures fall into the moderate or low-risk categories.
Although many resident halls are high-vulnerability structures, briefings on safety measures for students to take during an earthquake are relatively uncommon.
"We primarily focus on safety measures, such as what to do during fires and a tornado," said Geoffrey Fenlong, assistant coordinator of resident life. Fenlong added he was unaware of any emergency ration kits available for students in the event of a major catastrophe, in which people could possibly be confined to one area for a long duration of time.
While the quake in India reached 7.2 on the Richter Scale and killed an estimated 32,000 people, the quake that rumbled down the New Madrid 190 years ago was estimated to reach 8.2.
Although the quake happened so long ago, the effects of it are still visible. For example, Reelfoot lake was created as the quake ripped through the land mass. In addition, the flow of the mighty Mississippi River was temporarily altered, creating waves in the water resembling those created by a passing boat, according to historical accounts.
According to Patterson, the New Madrid quake of 1811-12 had about 10 times the amount of ground motion and 64 times the strength as the quake that devastated India.
However, from a scientific standpoint, Patterson said a quake with the same intensity as the one in 1811 occurring in the near future is doubtful.
"We can't forecast earthquakes like weather, but we are expecting one in the 6 to 7 range," he said.
